With Fellowes writing? Not a chance.
Based on what I’ve seen of his character, I definitely thinks it’s not a stretch that Bates could have killed Vera. It wouldn’t surprise me at all. But Fellowes loves Bates. Bates possesses all sorts of admirable qualities! Bates is a good guy!
Tbh, I don’t care what happens to Bates. As long as he doesn’t become the butler. Because then we’re just being absurd with how nice the Crawleys are to their servants. I mean, we’re already in unrealistic buddy-buddy territory, but still. Give the man and Anna a cottage and let them be on their way. Just don’t drag that plot line out any longer, please.